Trouble being brewed for Apple

What's wrong with this picture (from Macworld UK):

Smith Barney analyst Richard Gardner expects Apple to sell 22 million flash-based iPods over the next two fiscal years, presuming the company does create a flash-based player, of course... The popularity of the iPod, and expectations that Apple will launch a flash-based iPod at Macworld Expo San Francisco in January have caused Apple's share price to surge in recent weeks. Piper Jaffray, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan have all issued glowing projections about the firm's future based on the popularity of the iPod.

Sounds great, doesn't it? There is just one tiny little problem: There is no such thing as a "flash-based iPod" and good reason to believe that there will never be one (read John Gruber's intelligent posts for background and explanations).

The analysts have dreamed this up amongst themselves and launched it on the world as a "future fact". If the flash iPod does not appear at the Expo, they will not say, "Oh well, we guessed wrongly". No, they will be bitterly disappointed in Apple and will immediately reduce their projections. Apple's share price will crash, because they did not do something that they never once talked about doing.

I am not a broker, and this is not necessarily good advice, but: If you hold Apple stock, consider putting a stop-loss sale marker on it before the Expo (Jan 10 to 14). Let the analysts be disappointed, let the stock drop. Two weeks later, when they notice that people are still buying iPods and revise their projections upwards: buy in again and ride the stock back up.